Biotech Funding Wargame

"Photograph by: Ian Nelson; © Crown Copyright/MOD, image
from www.photos.mod.uk.Reproduced with the permission
of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office"

The methodology of Wargaming has its origins in the military and is understood by Government. This simulation is designed to bring parties together who have different viewpoints in order to share a common experience and build a consensus solution. The game will use investment milestones as the framework to explore the significant variables that influence the development of a successful Biotech business. This includes and is not limited to: quality of management, the regulatory environment, equity market rules, company size. Within this landscape the simulation explores whether:

• Current risk reward equations can persuade large institutional investors to support biotech
• There is market failure in biotechnology investment (as defined by the Treasury Green Book)
• The UK is realising a fair value from the potential of biotechnology (investor returns, wealth creation, strategic health benefits)
• The UK biotechnology sector will produce new companies to regenerate and replenish the UK’s strategic presence in the pharma and health sector

The realistic way in which a simulation reveals problems persuades participants to immediately explore and agree on solutions. If the case for change is made, the simulation will also provide material to support a persuasive post event campaign to adopt solutions. The following website link illustrates the simulation format and demonstrates its power to achieve change (www.atlantic-storm.org).

Simulstrat Game

The two day simulation has been created by strategy experts from Simulstrat at King’s College London (KCL), using techniques employed by KCL War Studies staff at the UK senior commanders war college and in other Government simulations.

The Joint Services Command Staff College at Shrivenham utilises the academic talents of King’s College London. Photograph by: Dave Allardice; © Crown Copyright/MOD, image from www.photos.mod.uk. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office”.

The simulation models the unique status of a Biotech business. Instead of a conventional investment model that values performance from accounts (assets, revenues, profits), the game treats biotechnology as a commercially funded science research and development enterprise, which attracts investment from valuations based on evidence from clinical trials.
Ref diagram Therapeutic Need.

Biotech monetises investment by seeking valuations on unproven products proceeding through regulatory approval. Scientists are required to value a biotech. © Simulstrat 2008

In order to provoke debate and prompt solutions, the BFF game will compare UK and US experiences at each of the key stages in biotechnology investment and business development. The teams (drawn from all key stakeholder groups) will not be aware of each other’s performance. They will be given the same business opportunity and will be invited to work within the context of their own investment markets to maximise their returns.
Ref diagram BFF Investment cul de sac.

“Moves” track the relationship between trial data and decisions on investment and business development. The variations in UK & US approach are collected as comparative data for participants and expert observers to explore causes and solutions to problems or weakness. © Simulstrat 2008

At regular intervals plenary sessions will be held in which control team of experts will analyse team performances and facilitate comments and solutions. The status and quality of experts participating in this game will reflect the strategic importance of biotechnology and healthcare to the UK national health & wealth.

After each plenary session there is a “time-jump” to investigate the consequences. The teams are given a briefing and business update and the game recommences. There will be four major moves in the game. As the teams work through the moves they will also be forced to respond to injected shocks (e.g. a bid from a pharmaceutical company) to reveal differences in the decision-making processes present in the UK and US markets.

Although realism is sought for the game the participants will be carefully briefed and co-ordinated by a “Control” team from Simulstrat. This process ensures that individuals can contribute without fear of compromising their personal reputation or business interests. This is an essential principle of the simulation.